A Graphical Look at the Most Improved

Every year in the NBA some players get better while others get worse.  These increases or decreases can be attributed to a lot of factors; age, health, usage, new environment, or just hard work.  This article is going to graphically examine the change in the NBA’s most improved.  The players that will be used are considered to be in the running for the award.  Those players are: Victor Oladipo, Trey Lyles, Aaron Gordon, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Kristaps Porzingis, Spencer Dinwiddie, Kris Dunn, and Jaylen Brown.  To measure the success of the players I will use real plus minus (RPM). The biggest increase in the RPM is Jalen Brown with and increase by 5.43, with Spencer Dinwiddie and Victor Oladipo rounding out the top 3.  Only Aaron Gordon and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson saw a decrease in RPM.  Obviously there is more to a good basketball player than RPM, the eye test matters.  If I had a vote for Most Improved Player I would vote for Victor Oladipo.

change in RPM

2017 NBA Draft Preview: Guard Edition

Last year I wrote my first blog post about the 2016 NBA draft.  Almost a year later, I have gone in depth and explored potential lottery guards.   This Guard class is deeper than that of last year.  There are multiple guards that range in ability, and play style.   The NBA is in a golden age when it comes to guard play.  Players like Harden, Curry and Westbrook are dominating the association.  Because of this, NBA teams are looking for dynamic talents to match up with those superstars. Without further adieu, I will break down the following guards: Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, Dennis Smith JR, Donovan Mitchell, and Frank Ntilinkia.  I will break down the positives, the negatives, potential player comparisons, and teams that are a good fit.   Continue reading

Quantitative Look at NBA Pre-season Rankings

Every year, just before the season begins, writers publish their annual list ranking the best players going into the season.  These list encourage debate amongst NBA fans from all over.  Opinions like “Curry is better than Durant” or “Why is Rose ranked so low this year”, these list elicit both positive and negative responses.  So the question I asked do these list matter in terms of predicting success? and if so which ranking site is the most accurate? Continue reading

16 In 16 The best NBA Point Guards

As training camps are about to kick off I thought it would be a great time to look at the best players in the NBA.  This is my rankings of the best player at each position, and then a final best players regardless of position will conclude the series.  I will be breaking these down into the five positions (point guard, shooting guard, small forward, power forward, and center).  It is common for a player to play multiple positions, however, I will count the player where he plays most of his minutes according to basketball reference.  When ranking the players the question I will ask myself is “who would I pick to start a team with for next season”.  This will be subjective, but I will try to back my opinions up with stats that show why X player is higher than Y player.  I hope you enjoy reading this and let’s being.   Continue reading

The Best Young Teams in the NBA

Loading up on young talent has always seemed like the most surefire way to build an NBA contender.  In recent years teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns, and the Golden State Warriors have all build through the draft and smart offseason acquisitions. Each team experienced varying levels of success, but all teams were built on young talent. This article will examine four teams that have a chance to become serious contenders within the next three to five years.24933324826_46c1a2fea8

The Minnesota Timberwolves.

The big advantage that Minnesota has over the rest of the league is Karl Anthony Towns. Who is the best young player in the NBA.  Towns average 18 and 10 while being the Best mid range shooter in the NBA last season, and all of this at the age of 20. Including Towns there has only been 8 Centres who have averaged 20 and 11 per 36 minutes.  All of them are in the Hall of Fame.  Towns is a superstar player and potentially the best player in the league.  Towns epitomizes modern basketball with the way he plays the centre position.  It’s rare that a player can defend, score inside and out, all while having elite athleticism.  Towns is truly a unicorn.  The Wolve’s riches don’t stop there, because the also have 2014-2015 NBA rookie of the year Andrew Wiggins.  Wiggins is a special player as well.  He is arguably a top 5 athlete in the NBA, he uses his athleticism to score in bunches.  Wiggins cracked 20 ppg for the first time in his young career last year, and is poised to do it again this year. One major improvement over the course of last season was his 3 point shooting.  After the all star break Wiggins shot over 41% from three.  Wiggins will need to unlock his 3 point shooting and playmaking ability if he wants to be an all NBA first team type player. However, without these look for wiggins to still be an all star player.  The Duo of Towns and Wiggins will be the best duo in the NBA five years from now.  However there is still a plethora of talent on the Wolves.  The next two are Zach Lavine and the 5th overall pick in this draft Kris Dunn.  I’ve wrote about Dunn Previously, and just to rehash I believe Dunn is a good player but not an all star caliber player.  Dunn is a good passer, and has potential to be a defensive stopper under Tom Thibodeau’s system.  As for LaVine, he can become a very good third option for the team.  After essentially wasting him at point guard during his rookie season, LaVine showed some of his potential last year.  LaVine shot a shade under 39% from deep last year.  LaVine’s shooting will be important to unlock driving lanes for Dunn and Wiggins.  LaVine’s otherworldly athleticism will help Zach develop on the defensive side of the ball.  The Wolves also have Shabazz Muhammad who can be a good 6th man off the bench, and Gorgui Deng who can operate out of the high post and has a good 10-16 foot jump shot.  Rounding out the young player on the roster the wolves also have Tyus Jones who at best is a back up point guard, and bench player Nemanja Bjelica.

The toughest question that the wolves face is what to do with Ricky Rubio.  Rubio is what he is at this point, an above average player but nothing more.  Rubio can defend very well and pass the ball without turning it over much.  But Rubio can’t shoot and this hinders the spacing of the wolves.  The Wolves could either look to trade Rubio now for a stretch forward or keep and mentor Dunn.  I believe the Wolves should keep Rubio.  Rubio only has three years left on his 4 year 56 million dollar contract.

Here are the salaries of the wolves for the next few years.

Minsal

2016-2017 Season Outlook:

I believe the Wolves will sneak into the eighth seed next year.

Future Outlook:

Look for the wolves to be in the western conference finals anywhere from three to five years from now, and will compete for a championship in that time as well.

 

The Milwaukee Bucks:

The Milwaukee Bucks are trying to usher in the era of positionless basketball.  They are doing this by adding one thing, wingspan.  This revolution starts with Giannis Antetokounmpo.  The 6’11” Giannis is the primary ball handler in the Bucks’ offence.  This creates mismatches galore.  Post all star break Giannis averaged 18.8ppg 8.6rpg and 7.2 apg.  These numbers are essentially Lebron/Westbrook numbers.  If Giannis averages anything close to these expect the first all star appearance for the Greek.  It is not possible to be so long.  The Bucks also have two more good young prospects;  Jabari Parker and Khris Middleton.  The casual NBA may not have heard of Middleton, but let me assure you he is a fantastic player.  Middleton has upped virtually all his stats since coming into the league during the 2012-2013 season.  Middleton  is essentially a slightly worse version of Klay Thompson.  Middleton has a high 3pt attempt rate, and provides crucial floor spacing in the Bucks offense.  Middleton probably won’t make an all star team, but he is a high quality option for the Bucks now and in the future.  Moving on, Jabari Parker still has perennial all star potential.  After having his rookie season cut short, Parker rebounded nicely in his sophomore season.  Parker averaged over 14 ppg while shooting nearly 50%, and got better as the season went on.  This should point to a bright future for 21 year old forward.  Parker is very fluid and packs power when finishing near the rim. So what else do the Bucks have? Well there’s this year’s 10th overall pick Thon Maker, rim protector John Henson, and whatever Michael Carter Williams is.  First let’s start with Maker.  Thon Maker is an extremely raw prospect who has only played against high school players before summer league. Thon Maker does have great athleticism for someone his size and like all Bucks players he has wingspan for days.  The Bucks are hoping to strike lightning twice with Thon turning out as well as Giannis.  Although this is unlikely (Thon turning into an all star candidate) he did show some skills at summer league.  John Henson is a great shot blocker and uses his length well when contesting shots.  The Bucks recently inked Henson to a 4 year 45 million dollar extension last offseason.  Henson defended shots within 5 ft below league average with opponents shooting just over 50% inside 5 ft. Henson could probably make a run at an all defensive team if he makes a couple of more leaps.  As for Carter Williams, it will be interesting what the Bucks do with the 6’6″ point guard who despite his length is limited on the court.

The toughest question facing the Bucks is how to get rid of Greg Monroe.  Monroe isn’t a bad player, but he doesn’t fit with the Bucks and is owed a lot of money.  Monroe can score in the low post, however, he doesn’t play defense or pass the ball very well.  Trading Monroe would be the best option for the Bucks but the challenge is finding a trade partner.

Here are the books for the next few years

mil.PNG2016-2017 Outlook:

I’m high on the Bucks this year.  Im picking the Bucks to be the five seed and make it to the eastern conference semi-finals

Future Outlook:

I don’t think the Bucks can win a title unless Jabari Parker maxes his potential as a paul pierce clone, and Thon Maker develops similarly to Giannis Antetokounmpo.

 

The Los Angeles Lakers

The Los Angeles Lakers are looking to return to the NBA’s elite after withering under the leadership of Byron Scott.  Getting rid of Scott was a great move by the Lakers, Scott often let Kobe, Lou Will, and Nick Young chuck all game long and didn’t bother playing the young guns early in the season.  The Lakers revitalization rest mostly on two players; D’Angelo Russell, and Brandon Ingram.  The number 2 pick from this draft and the number 2 pick from last year’s draft.  D’Angelo managed to make all rookie second team this year, and got better as the year went on.  Russell can be lethal from downtown, he shot over 35% during his rookie campaign.  Russell also proved he could be counted on in the clutch throughout his rookie season.  Russell can develop into a dynamic scorer, but he also flashed playmaking abilities.  During his rookie season Russell played about 86% of his time at point guard with the remaining time at shooting guard.  I believe Russell should be used a bit more at shooting guard, but he does have the ability to play point guard.  Russell’s can develop into a player somewhere in between CJ Mccollum (floor) and James Harden (ceiling).  Let’s move onto the other Laker blue chip prospect Brandon Ingram .  Ingram is a long lean prospect out of Duke university.  Ingram has a silky smooth stroke, and an abundance of physical tools.  Early projections have Ingram as a poor man’s Kevin Durant.  While this probably isn’t fair to Ingram, it certainly does describe his game somewhat.  The Lakers also have a trio of good young players.  These players include Julius Randle, Jordan Clarkson, and Larry Nance Jr..  Julius Randle is a beast down low.  Averaging a double double, Randle quickly proved his worth to the franchize after missing his whole rookie season.  Randle uses his body well to position himself for rebounds.  Randle has the ability to finish with either hand and uses his mobility to get to his desired spots on the court.   Randle still needs to work on his outside jump shot to keep defenders honest, and he needs to work on becoming more impactful on the defensive end of the court.  The next Laker with potential is Jordan Clarkson.  Clarkson was an unheralded 2nd round pick in the 2014 draft class but has shown the ability to get buckets.  Although less efficient in his second year,  Clarkson put up 15 ppg on a “meh” 51.6 TS%.   Going forward I see Clarkson as a bench player who can fill it up when he is on the floor in limited minutes.  Last but not least is Larry Nance Jr.  Nance is an athletic power forward who runs the floor well.  Nance needs to work on his 3pt shot going forward but has upside given his athletic ability.

The main concern with the Lakers is their front office.  During the summer the Lakers for some reason signed Timofey Mozgov for 64 million dollars.  This guy had more fouls than points during the postseason.  Also the Lakers gave 72 million for Luol Deng.  Although Deng is a much better player than Mozgov, but is he worth 72 million dollars? The answer is no especially considering that it is a 4 year deal.  For the Lakers to be successful they need to make smart, savvy moves regarding player personnel or they face the same fate as the 2013 Brooklyn Nets.

Salaries below: lalsal.PNG2015-2016 Outlook:

Not great… But I don’t think they will be as bad as last year.  Expect the Lakers to finish around the 12th seed and start to show signs of life again.

Future Outlook:

If the players develop and the Lakers start making strides expect them to swing for some marquee free agents.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lakers aren’t making a decent playoff run by 2020.

 

The Philadelphia 76ers

Sam Hinkie Died for this.  After years of tanking with little success, the 76ers finally won the NBA draft lottery.   Coincidentally just after notorious draft tanker Sam Hinkie and the 76ers parted ways, and with the first pick the 76ers selected Ben Simmons.  Simmons has been heralded for a while now.  The 6’10” power forward is a unique prospect mixing play making ability with a power forward body.  Simmons averaged 19.2 ppg, 11.8 rpg and 4.8 apg during his one year at Baton Rouge.  Simmons projects to be a unique elite talent in the NBA.  He’s similar to Giannis Antetokounmpo and Lebron James in that he has a tremendous gift of passing the basketball. He’s also adept at driving to the lane and either finishing or kicking the ball out to open shooters.  The one thing holding Simmons back is his shooting.  During his only season at LSU, Simmons shot 33% from the college 3 point line.  The next big prospect that the 76ers have going for them is Joel Embiid.  Embiid was drafted back in 2014, but has not played in a game due to injuries.  Embiid is a physical monster.  Embiid was listed at 7′ when drafted, but recently he’s been measured at 7’2“. It’s hard to tell how much the injuries have affected Embiid, but during his year in Kansas showed a nice touch out of the post and the ability to anchor a defense.  Embiid is a player that NBA fans should be waiting anxiously to see.   The 76ers have numerous young prospects.  The next one that I will touch on is 2015 2nd overall pick Jahlil Okafor.  Jahlil Okafor is a great offensive player.  Okafor is advanced for his age.  Demonstrating the ability to finish with either hand, Okafor has a throwback game that is very encouraging to 76er Brass.  Okafor is just 20 years old, but he needs to become a better defender or his ceiling becomes a al jefferson rather than a player with multiple all star games under his belt.   The 76ers also have Nerlens Noel.  Noel is essentially an opposite of Jahlil Okafor. Noel is a great defender who still needs to develop on the offensive end.  Noel was one of two players to average 1.5 spg and 1.5 bpg last season.  Despite playing on a terrible team, Noel posted a respectable defensive rating of 103 during the season, and 2.8 defensive win shares.  Noel uses his athleticism on defense to create chances in transition, and because of this Noel can become a potential DPOY.  However Noel’s offense is limited and he doesn’t have much of a shot, but the potential is there.  The 76ers also own the rights to one of the best european players in Dario Šarić.  Saric is similar to Simmons in that he is capable of making plays for others and the ability to shot the play.  In Europe Saric shot 50-40-90, although the competition isn’t as stiff this is great news for the 76ers going forward.

The main concern is the lack of capable guards on the 76er’s roster.  The best guard on the 76ers roster currently is probably Gerald Henderson.  That is terrifying.  The 76ers could look to move one of their bigs most likely either Okafor or Noel.  The 76ers also have to worry about Bryan Colangelo who is not good at his job.  The 76ers can’t worry about getting good fast and speeding up their timeline.  Instead they need to let the young players grow together and accumulate assets.

Here’s a look at future cap space

philcon.PNG

 2016-2017 season outlook:

Expect another top 5 pick because the 76ers aren’t going to be good next year.

Future outlook:

The Future is bright for the 76ers.  The 76ers also have the rights to the Laker’s pick in next year’s draft.  But I’d look for the 76ers to start making the playoffs in about 3 years if everything goes according to plan.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rolling (Offseason) Thunder

Sign Kevin Durant.  If the Thunder sign KD to any sort of contract then this offseason is a success.  But it’s not that simple.  Durant is the most coveted free agent since lebron james in 2010, and many teams are after him. By many teams I mean 30.  So if I were the Thunder I would have two strategies for this off season.  Both strategies should hinge on whether KD re-signs or not.  The first one would be if KD re-signs with the Thunder. Option 2 is basically doomsday where Kevin decides to leave.  There’s a real possibility that KD leaves.  The western conference isn’t getting easier, outside of Cleveland there is no threat in the east, and the lure of a bigger market may be too much to pass up.  However, I still believe that Kevin Durant will re-sign with OKC for a 1+1 deal.  So let’s breakdown what the Thunder’s approach should be depending on what KD’s decision is. Continue reading

Changing of the guards

As the American philosopher Lloyd Banks once said “Beamer, Benz, or Bentley”.  A choice between three marvelous options.  All possess impressive power, class, and awe inspiring performance.  Like these cars the NBA draft represent a choice between Hield, Murray, or Dunn. Choosing between these players will define the future of NBA franchises  Continue reading