Changing of the guards

As the American philosopher Lloyd Banks once said “Beamer, Benz, or Bentley”.  A choice between three marvelous options.  All possess impressive power, class, and awe inspiring performance.  Like these cars the NBA draft represent a choice between Hield, Murray, or Dunn. Choosing between these players will define the future of NBA franchises 

After being down at halftime, the Cyclones fought back, but fell short in their first game of the Big 12 Championship, losing to the Oklahoma Sooners 79-76.

A marksman, a sharpshooter, flamethrower whatever you term you use to describe Hield one thing is for sure, that man can shoot.  For his career Hield shot 39% on 6.8 attempts, including a ridiculous 45.7% on 8.7 attempts during his senior year.  His senior year shooting exhibition is one of the greatest 3pt shooting years of all time.  of the players who had more than 8.5 3pa playing at least 10 games that year Hield ranks 4th based on 3p%, and 4th on 3pm.  However that is just the start of the accolades that Hield received during his senior year.  Buddy was named 1st team all american, and took home the John Wooden award for the best player in the country.  Hield is one of the most accomplished players entering the 2016 NBA draft.

So how will Hield’s game translate into the NBA game?  Hield possess ideal size to play the 2 guard in the NBA.  He measured 6’5″ with shoes and has a wingspan of 6’9.25″.  This wingspan will allow Hield to guard players who are taller than him.  Shooting will be his greatest strength, and not only his shot but the gravity of attracting defenders to him.  Hield can be used similarly to a Klay Thompson, JJ Reddick, or Steph Curry.  Hield’s shooting will attract defensive attention and allow for driving lanes to the basket.  In addition to his shooting, Hield has also made strides in his ability to get to the line. Hield’s FTr jumped up to .333 in his senior year.  Essential Hield would take one free throw every three field goals attempted.  Getting to the line is a valuable skill in the NBA.  Just look at someone like James Harden.  Harden gets to the line at will and because of this James has become one of the most prolific and efficient scorers in the NBA.  Hield isn’t quite James Harden level adept at drawing fouls; however, it’s a skill that Hield needs to continually improve. The one negative that scouts will bring up is the age of Hield who is already 22.  This may make teams think twice about drafting Buddy.  The main concern is that Buddy will be 26 when he enters restricted free agency, and 31 when he hits the unrestricted free agency for the first time.  This could be trouble because the typical NBA player reaches his prime around 27 – 29. Therefore, the team who drafts Hield will get less years than drafting a similar player like Jamal Murray (more on him later).  Age also matters because some teams may fear that a player like Hield cannot improve much from his current abilities. However, the bottom line is that I believe Hield will end up being an efficient scorer, and one of the best shooters in the NBA.

So who should draft Hield? Well picks one and two are presumably Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram respectively.  Also given the talent, Hield is essentially a lock for the top 10.  So that leaves the Celtics, Suns, Timberwolves, Pelicans, Nuggets, Kings, Raptors, and Bucks.  I don’t believe that Hield will be on the board when the Raptors and Bucks pick.  Although Hield on the Bucks would be a great fit. There are three teams who I believe would fit Hield nicely – the Celtics, Pelicans, and the Kings.

So let’s taking a closer look at the Celtics and their current roster construction.  The Celtics have one G/F who is a free agent this summer, Evan Turner.  Although Turner typically plays small forward, Basketball Reference shows that Turner played 30% of available minutes at shooting guard.  The rest of the Celtics guards include: All Star Isaiah Thomas, a pair of defensive studs in Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley, and a pair of rookies in Terry Rozier, and R.J Hunter.  All of these players are locked into contract through the 2017-2018 season.  Assuming the Celtics re-sign Turner that will give them 6 guards that are vying for minutes.  This should not persuade the Celtics into taking Hield off their board based solely on position.  Because the NBA is a talent business and Hield has potential to be a very talented player for a long time.  Also both Thomas and Rozier are limited into playing point guard, because they do not have the size to play consistent minutes at the 2 guard. However, the most important reason is Danny Ainge.  Aigne loves to stockpile assets so that he can use them to better his team either through trades or simply keeping the player.  If another team likes Hield say the Kings, Pacers, or 76ers Aigne could pick Hield and use him as a centerpiece for landing a star player (Cousins, George, Okafor) in this situation.  If Ainge were to keep Hield he would be adding much needed shooting to the Celtics who ranked 28th in 3P%. The lack of shooting roared its ugly head again in the playoffs when the Celtics lost in 6 games to the Hawks. A series where the experts picked the Celtics to win. The Celtics shot an abysmal 27.5% from downtown during the series.  By adding a shooter like Hield I believe the Celtics could make it to the conference finals next year.  Reasons like this is why Hield would be a great pick for the Celtics come June.

The next option that would be a great fit for Hield would be The New Orleans Pelicans. The Pelicans have a lot of key players with their contracts up this summer or the next one. Players like Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans, and 2X NBA Champion Norris Cole. Jrue Holiday is injury prone, Eric Gordon is alright when he plays – never lived up to the early hype. Side note remember when Gordon vs Harden was a legitimate debate. Pepperidge Farms Remembers.  Tyreke Evans Can’t shoot and limits the Pelican’s spacing especially when they play davis with a center like Ajinca or Asik. Norris Cole is a backup and nothing more. Adding a dynamic player like Buddy Hield would do wonders for the Pelicans. He would bolster the team with the 18th best offensive rating, and add to a team that ranked middle of the pack in 3PA and 3PM.  Slotting Hield next to Jrue in their lineup would help a lot. It would give Gentry another offensive weapon to help the Pelicans fight for a playoff spot after having a disastrous 2015-2016.  The Pelicans do not want to waste Anthony Davis’ prime and want to win now.  Adding a mature player like Hield would allow them to compete next year. The Pelicans won’t have to deal with a 18 year old just entering adulthood, but get a professional who knows what it takes.   Overall adding Hield would give the Pelicans shooting and talent in a position of need.

You know that ex that you dated? The crazy one, who was absolutely crazy but had a few things going for them? If that person were a NBA franchise they would be the Sacramento Kings. The Kings do have a couple of things going for them – great fans and Boogie Cousins. But let’s not undersell the dysfunction that plagued the Kings this season.  The George Karl firing seemed like something out of game of thrones, and a really weird roster construction doomed them from the beginning.  One of the main reasons why the Kings aren’t successful is the lack of success in the draft.  Since drafting Cousins in 2010 the Kings have missed on their picks.  In 2011 they drafted Biyombo 7th overall who was traded for Jimmer Fredette. Later in the 2011 draft they drafted Isaiah Thomas and traded him for Alex Oriakhi.  2012 saw Thomas Robinson who is currently on his 5th team. It is worth noting that Robinson wasn’t a bad pick at the time and many people had him going number 2 after Davis. 2013 the Kings drafted Ben McLemore. Nik Stauskas was the pick in 2014.  However the Kings drafted a good young player in Willie Cauley-Stein.  The Kings can continue to build on last year’s success by drafting Buddy Hield if he is still on the board come June.  Currently the Kings have 3 guards under contract for next season. Marco Belinelli, Darren Collison, and the aforementioned Ben McLemore. It could be argued that Hield is better than all three of these players right now, and I wouldn’t argue it one bit. Reports are that Vlade “loves” Hield.  Honestly that is no surprise because the Kings need talent and 3pt shooting and Buddy provides that.  New coach Dave Joerger will want leadership and drafting Hield will give the kings another mature player with great leadership qualities to build with Willie Cauley-Stein.  Drafting Hield would be the best case scenario for the Kings and a step in the right direction in giving those passionate fans what they deserve.

The Freshmen Phenom Jamal Murray was the best freshman in all of division one basketball for the 2015-2016 season.  Murray had one of the best scoring seasons for a freshman in recent memory.  In fact Murray had the sixth best effective field goal percentage for freshmen who averaged more than 20 points per game.  Jamal Murray has a silky smoove game, and deep range. Murray can light it up from anywhere on the court.  Transition, driving to the cup, mid range, and from the land beyond – Murray has it all.  Murray ranked near the top of his conference (Southeastern Conference) for stats like PPG, various shooting measures (TS%, Efg%) and ranked number 1 in win shares produced. Murray has also competed in international competitions for Canada Basketball.  During the 2015 Pan American Games Murray averaged 16 ppg 3.2 rpg and 2.4 apg while shooting 46% from the field.

Murray projects as a combo guard with a height of 6’4.25″ in shoes and a wingspan of 6’6.5″. Whether a team wants to develop murray as a point guard or shooting guard Murray is an excellent prospect. Murray packs a scoring punch in a variety of ways.  During his time in Kentucky Murray was responsible for almost half of the team’s 3 point production.  While watching Murray, I notice he was adept at finishing around the rim. Murray is able to alter his shot with defenders in his area.  This is a key skill in the NBA, because of the length and shot blocking that teams have an abundance of.  In college it’s important to score, but in the NBA scoring efficiently is just as important.  During his year at Kentucky, Murray averaged 1.19 points per possession.  Although Murray is not an elite level athlete, he is more than capable of playing at the NBA level.  There are some drawbacks to murray as a prospect.  There is some concern over what position murray will play.  Murray does not have elite lateral quickness so if a team drafted him to play point guard he may struggle against quicker guards.  Murray also doesn’t have great strength so bigger guards may be able to bully him in the post.  Scouts also like to harp on the lack of playmaking exhibited by Murray during his time at Kentucky.  Murray only averaged 2.2 assist while racking up 2.3 turnovers per game.  Having an assist to turnover ration under 1 is not ideal.  The lack of playmaking by Murray can be partially explained by the design of Kentucky’s offense.  Tyler Ulis was the main playmaker in Kentucky’s offense, this forced Murray to play off ball.  Overall Murray is an excellent prospect, and I’ll outline some potential landing spots

Like Hield, Murray is favoured to land in similar spots (Celtics, Pelicans, and Kings).  There are two more potential spots where Murray could land, and they are both a bit out of left field. The first option is the Philadelphia 76ers.  But the 76ers have the first overall pick, there’s no way they’re not taking Simmons right?  Well Bryan Colangelo is the general manager so anything is possible.  Including taking him number 1 overall, which would be insane.  But that’s not the scenario where the 76ers would take Murray.  There are numerous reports that are reporting that the 76ers are trying to trade Okafor.  Trading Okafor could net the 76ers another top 5 pick.  A pick they could very well be used for Murray given how much they like him.  Currently the 76ers have next to nothing on their roster.  Like imagine going on netflix and finding out the only movie they are streaming is National Treasure 2.  National Treasure 2 is the 76ers.  Ish Smith is a free agent, Nik Stauskas is not good, and Isaiah Canaan shoots 36%.  Needless to say by adding Murray the 76ers would be taking a step in the right direction.  Murray would become the best offensive player on the 76ers.  The 76ers ranked 29th in points per game, and 29th in field goal percentage.  Adding Murray would give a lift to a offense and help lift a franchise that won 10 games last year.  Given that Murray is only 19 years old he has a lot of time to grow in a market that isn’t expecting much.

The second option for Murray is the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets are an interesting team with a lot of pieces.  Currently at the 2 guard the Nuggets have Gary Harris, Will Barton and Wilson Chandler.  The latter two are can play both the 2 and the 3.  Adding Murray to the Nuggets would help inject offense into the lineup that was sluggish.  Under their new head Coach the nuggets offense stuttered.  The Nuggets ranked poorly on offensive rating, points per game, and shooting percentages (both fg% and 3p%).  Adding Murray could form a dangerous backcourt duo with Emmanuel Mudiay who is full of potential.  Murray’s ability to play off ball and spot up would pair nicely with Mudiay’s athleticism and driving ability.  The Nuggets have a mix of young players and players who are in their prime.  Young players like Jokic, Mudiay, Barton, Harris, and Nurkic make up a dynamic young core for the Nuggets to build on.  Adding a player like Murray would add more young talent to a blossoming team.  If I were the Nuggets and both Murray and Hield were on the board, I’d go Murray.  The reason is that Murray is younger and has more potential.  Murray has star potential, and the Nuggets need a star.  Their attendance ranks dead last in the league and having a chance to add a star would prove too much to pass up.

The last player of the three guards is Providence Friars’ point guard Kris Dunn.  Kris Dunn is a fantastic prospect.  The senior point guard is going to be a defensive savant in the NBA.  Dunn was a two time Big East Player of the Year (2014-2015 and 2015-2016).  In addition to this Dunn received 2nd team All American honors, and a finalist for the John Wooden award for player of the year. Throughout his four years, Dunn has worked on his game and has improved every year.  First and foremost, Dunn has worked on improving his 3 point shot.  Dunn connected on 37.2% of his 3s while attempting a career high 3.4 attempts from behind the arc.  Although his shooting is not at the level of Hield or Murray, Dunn is clearly the superior passer.  Dunn finished second in his conference in assist this year.  Dunn’s assist percentage over 41%. while only have a turnover percentage of 18.8%.  Dunn’s ability to create while limiting turnovers will prove to be valuable at the next level.  Dunn was also causing havoc on the defensive side of the ball.  With quick hands and anticipation Dunn totaled more than 4 steals a game.

Dunn is projected to be an elite defensive point guard at the next level.  With shoes, Dunn measures in at 6’4.25″.  Coupled with a ridiculous wingspan of 6’9.5″ Dunn has elite physical tools to terrorize opponents at the next level.  With size like that, Dunn has the ability to guard multiple positions.  Dunn has a standing reach of 8’4″ which will allow for quality contest on opponents shots.  Dunn has a very quick first step which he uses to get into the paint and collapse defenses for either a shot or a dish to an open teammate. Dunn can use this first step combined with his tight handle to get any shot he wants.  Dunn has a very good in and out crossover and step back.  He uses these moves effectively to create space for himself.  While watching Dunn one thing kept jumping out at me, his ability in transition.  Dunn loves to push the tempo and he tries to get easy looks in transition for himself and his teammates.  Building on his ability in transition, Dunn is a good rebounder for a point guard.  By grabbing rebounds Kris can push the tempo without being slowed down while waiting for a big to pass him the ball.  Dunn is also a willing passer, and great at making tough passes.  While playing Rhode Island, Dunn was able to thread the needle to bigs in the post.  The windows that Dunn was throwing the passes through were tight.  Being a good passer bodes well for the pick and roll/pop game.  In the NBA, every team runs some form of a pick and roll throughout the game.   Dunn has also shown the ability to play in the post.  Guards like Shaun Livingston and Russell Westbrook have had success using their size/strength advantage against smaller guards.  Providence will run post ups for Dunn.  These plays will create good looks, either for Dunn or the opportunity to pass to an open teammate.  Dunn uses his length well when contesting shots.  He is able to alter shots at the rim and put pressure on perimeter shooters.  However, Dunn needs to fix a few things.  First, Dunn can become over aggressive on the defensive end.  Dunn likes to gamble for steals sometimes leaving his man to double the post player.  This will result in open shots for the other team when he isn’t successful at stealing the ball.  Dunn’s shot selection leaves a bit to be desired.  Dunn often settles for long twos instead of driving into the lane.  The reason why long twos are bad is that they are inefficient compared to shots in the paint or three point attempts.  However both of these issues can be fixed with coaching – prospective teams have little to worry about when drafting Kris Dunn.

Given that Hield, Murray, and Dunn are similar players they all have similar destination. Either of these players could end up in Boston, New Orleans, Sacramento, Philadelphia, or Denver.  However, there is one more destination where Dunn could find himself; Minnesota.  The Minnesota Timberwolves are the best young team in the NBA, and it won’t be long till they’re competing for the Larry O’Brien Trophy. One reason why Minnesota makes sense is that Dunn wants to go there.  Rumors also report that Dunn is not going to give his medical records to the Phoenix Suns in hopes of landing in the twin cities. Digging into the Timberwolves roster shows that adding Dunn makes sense.  They do have a capable starter in Ricky Rubio.  Rubio is a great defensive point guard, but can’t shoot.  Rubio Shot 37% from the field last year.  However Rubio is one of the best passers in the NBA. He does an excellent job at spreading the ball around.  The second point guard on the Timberwolves roster is Tyus Jones.  Jones was a late first round pick last year, but is nothing special.  Adding a player like Dunn the Timberwolves could groom him slowly and have him take over the reigns after they decided what to do with Rubio. The wolves could also play Dunn with Rubio in small ball lineups. Another reason why this makes sense is the coach of the Timberwolves, Tom Thibodeau.  Thibodeau is a defensive minded coach who values perimeter defense.   Thibodeau coached teams ranked in the top 10 defenses in each of the years he coached -sans 2014-2015.  Thibodeau would love to add the length of Dunn to a lineup featuring Towns, Wiggins, Lavine, Dieng, and Shabazz.  Given the youth movement going on in Minnesota, playing with an uptempo pace may favour the the Wolves’ roster.  Adding a point that loves to play with tempo just seems too perfect not to happen.  2 weeks out from the draft I feel surprisingly good about Dunn to the Timberwolves for the reasons listed above.

Good things often come in threes; the Kardashians, the 3 stooges, the big 3, and of course the Star Wars Prequels.  But the questions still remains; Who is the Beamer, the Benz, and the Bentley.  If I had to peg these players, Murray would be the Bentley and Hield the Benz. This leaves Dunn as the Beamer.  Whether you agree with my assessment or not there is one certainty; after June 23, 2016 their jeans will not be empty.