Sign Kevin Durant. If the Thunder sign KD to any sort of contract then this offseason is a success. But it’s not that simple. Durant is the most coveted free agent since lebron james in 2010, and many teams are after him. By many teams I mean 30. So if I were the Thunder I would have two strategies for this off season. Both strategies should hinge on whether KD re-signs or not. The first one would be if KD re-signs with the Thunder. Option 2 is basically doomsday where Kevin decides to leave. There’s a real possibility that KD leaves. The western conference isn’t getting easier, outside of Cleveland there is no threat in the east, and the lure of a bigger market may be too much to pass up. However, I still believe that Kevin Durant will re-sign with OKC for a 1+1 deal. So let’s breakdown what the Thunder’s approach should be depending on what KD’s decision is.
Kevin Durant Re-signs
Thunder nation collectively exhales, and the Thunder are smack dab in title contention next year. But there are still some roster questions. The Thunder have 10 players under contract for next season, and Anthony Morrow who has a team option. I believe Presti should pick up Morrow’s contract in either situation. Morrow is a career 42.5% three point shooter. Finding shooters as good as Morrow are hard to find in the NBA. Also Morrow is only owed 3.4 million dollars. Bringing Morrow back is a no brainer. The NBA cap is expected to rise to 92 million. Kevin Durant is eligible for 30% of that 92 million. This would result in a cap hit of 27.6 million. Adding both Morrow’s contract and KD’s new deal would push the Thunder’s team salaries to just over 97 million dollars. The luxury tax line is reportedly projected to be 111 million for next season. This gives the thunder some wiggle room to sign some players.
The biggest question is what to do with Dion Waiters? Dion is entering restricted free agency. This gives the Thunder the right to match any offer that Dion receives. But should they? Waiters is an enigma. One game he’ll shoot 7/9 for 18 points then the next he shoots 0/6 and fails to score. I have compiled a list of players who had similar stats to Dion Waiters. I’ve decided to use playoff stats, because playoff performance matters more than the regular season, and Dion waiters was playing his best basketball during the playoffs.
The table shows a list of the comparable players to Dion. Please note that Courtney Lee’s stats are from the regular season because the Rockets Didn’t make the playoffs that year. All the stats are from the playoffs before the player signed their deal. Also all of the players were/are in their mid 20s which makes them comparable because theoretically they should be entering their prime performance years. A quick caveat is that these stats don’t measure defense, because defensive stats are hard to quantify. Looking at this list I would expect Waiters to fall somewhere between 11-15% of a team’s cap space over a 4 year contract. On the low end (11%) 4 years 40 million, and 4 years 56 million on the high end. But should the Thunder pay this much for Waiters. If I were the Thunder the most I’d be willing to pay is about 4 years 48 million. I don’t think Waiters is worth more than that. Say the Thunder sign Waiters for 48 million over 4 years that would bring their total cap with signing durant up to roughly 110 million. This would give the Thunder 13 players under contract with two roster spots available. From here the Thunder like to have veteran NBA players on minimum contracts. Some options could include: Kendrick Perkins, Luis Scola, Matt Bonner, Tayshaun Prince, Steve Novak, Kirk Hinrich, and Brian Roberts to name a few. However if the Thunder don’t match Dion’s offer sheet there are some options.
The First option in my opinion is Courtney Lee. Lee is a great shooter and defender. For his career Lee shot over 38% from 3, and has always been known as a good defender who can guard multiple positions in stretches. Lee is more of an off ball player than Dion is. This could be beneficial for the Thunder because it would allow Cameron Payne (their first round pick from a year ago) more freedom to develop. Lee is also more consistent than Dion. Since the Thunder are a championship contender this could entice Lee to take less in hopes to win a ring.
Eric Gordon could be an interesting option for the Thunder. Gordon can score the basketball in bunches when he’s on the court. But can he stay on the court? Gordon has never played a full 82 game season and the closest he’s been was 78 games in his rookie season. Adding gordon would give them 2 legitimate 6MOY players coming off the bench between him and Kanter. Gordon can also provide great floor spacing. Over half of Gordon’s field goal attempts were from the 3 point line, and he connected on more than 38% of them. A contract for Gordon may look like 2 years 24 million with an option after the first year. This would be a high risk high reward contract.
Behind door number three is Allen Crabbe. Crabbe is a restricted free agent which means that Portland has the right to match any offer sheets that Crabbe signs. Also Portland has about 38 million dollars in cap space so they are likely to match any offer he receives. But nothing is impossible. Crabbe is a good young players, who played well during this year’s playoffs. Crabbe shot over 39% from 3 during the regular season and a scorching 42.9% during the playoffs. Crabbe has also developed on the defensive end. Reaching in for steals, Crabbe has shown aggressiveness on the defensive end. The downside to Crabbe is that he only has one year of production, and it would be a risk signing him.
Out of these players plus Dion, I think bringing back Dion is the odds on favourite at this point in time for the Thunder. Presti has also hinted at this during his exit interview. Dion brings familiarity for the Thunder. The team knows his tendencies and won’t have to adjust to new teammates.
Kevin Durant leaves
Kevin Durant leaving would be devastating to the Thunder, because losing the best player in the NBA would have that effect on any team. For the record if Kevin decides to go I think he’ll go to one of these teams: the Celtics, the Raptors, the Pacers, the Hawks, or the Knicks. But anyway this would leave the Thunder scrambling trying to fill the void left by KD. In this situation the Thunder would only have 69.6 million tied up to their roster, and give Presti some money to play with. So let’s look at some options for the Thunder.
I would look for the Thunder to throw money at a guy like Nicolas Batum. Something like a 4 year 90 million dollar contract. Batum averaged 15-6-6 last year while playing good defense for the Hornets and lead them to the playoffs. Batum’s ability to create his own shot and set up looks for other players would help minimize the effect of KD leaving. Batum would also give the starters a secondary ball handler along with Westbrook. Batum also provides shooting on top of a savvy BBIQ.
The next option would be signing Harrison Barnes to an offer sheet. I believe in Barnes, a lot more than other people. I believe that Barnes can be a fringe all star player in the future. Barnes has the ability to create his own shot, defend multiple position, and knock down 3s consistently. Although the Warriors are able to match any contract offer Barnes signs, they don’t have all that much cap space and other free agents to sign as well. If I were the Thunder I’d offer Barnes around 4 years 88 million. This would give the Thunder a young building block for the future.
A third option to look at is free agent Kent Bazemore. Bazemore is a young athletic wing with potential. He has shown the ability to defend and make plays as well. Bazemore has shot around 36% from three in his last two seasons. Bazemore would cost less than both Barnes and Batum. A contract could potentially look like 4 years 70 million. This would give the Thunder money to go after other free agents.
If Durant leaves the best case scenario would be signing Harrison Barnes, and re-signing Dion Waiters. This would be a very sad day for Thunder fans, but Westbrook is still here. Adding like a guy like Barnes would still make the Thunder the division favourite and contender for a top 3 seed in the west.
Other offseason quips
Alex Abrines – Abrines is currently a player for FC Barcelona whose NBA rights are owned by the OKC Thunder. Abrines was named the Euroleague rising star. This award is for the best European player under the age of 22. I don’t think Abrines will come to the Thunder this year especially if KD re-signs. The reason being is that There aren’t that many roster spots available. If he were to come over he’d compete with Roberson, Morrow, Waiters (or his replacement), Durant, Singler, and Huestis for minutes at the 2 and 3 spot. Wasting money on a buyout and a contract for Abrines does not make sense this year. Next year I’d expect him to join the Thunder.
Kyle Singler – What should the Thunder do with Kyle Singler? Singler is owed 5 million dollars annually for the next 4 years, that’s way too much. He’s not very good and has even worse hair. I don’t think the Thunder should try to trade singler this offseason because he is still young, and not that many teams would be willing to take on that contract. Also a trade involving Singler may require for the Thunder to give up a draft pick. The Thunder should look to trade Singler when his value is higher. This may be tricky because Josh Huestis is trying to eat into Singler’s minutes next season.
NBA Draft – The NBA draft is quickly approaching and the Thunder don’t have a pick. However I wouldn’t be surprised if Presti Traded into the draft. Something along the lines of cash for a second round pick, The pick would be used for most likely a developmental player to play with the OKC blue. Keep an eye out for athletic players with wingspan for days. Someone like Zhou Qi, Caris Levert, Malachi Richardson (pretty unlikely at this point), Wade Baldwin IV, Dorian Finney-Smith, or some international guy that you’ve never heard of.
The Peach basket 